Turim Insights

International trade, global market volatility, and the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar were among the key topics addressed in the May edition of the Turim View webinar.

On the global stage, April was marked by significant asset price fluctuations, although major equity indices have already recovered from the correction observed at the beginning of the month. This market recovery was also reflected in Brazilian assets. In such a dynamic and uncertain environment, disciplined portfolio management proved especially relevant.

The depreciation of the U.S. Dollar is particularly noteworthy. Although it remains at a historically elevated level, the Dollar has been weakening against the vast majority of other currencies — an unusual occurrence in times of heightened uncertainty. The more pronounced depreciation against developed market currencies supports the view that investors may be seeking greater geographical diversification within their portfolios.

Amid this turbulent landscape, the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a cautious stance. Given the rising risks to both of its mandates (price stability and full employment), committee members have indicated a willingness to wait for greater clarity before taking action.

In Brazil, we continue to observe a gradual slowdown in economic growth, despite noise in the latest labor market data, which appears to be influenced by seasonal distortions. In this context, local interest rates remain on a downward trend, while the market is pricing in the end of the monetary tightening cycle by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM).

This month’s webinar featured Fernando Verboonen, CIO at Turim; Pedro Hokama, Partner and Head of Liquid Assets at Turim; and Thiago Campos, Economist at Turim.