Turim Insights

The resilient performance of the U.S. economy, the outlook for the new Trump administration, and the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real were among the key topics discussed in this month’s Turim Insights Webinar.

In the United States, economic growth continued to surprise on the upside, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, significantly above expectations, and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate. At the same time, inflation expectations saw a slight uptick – driven by positive surprises in Q4 data and the potential impact of Trump administration policies related to tariffs and immigration. In this context, the market is already pricing in the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady at the upcoming January FOMC meeting.

In Brazil, the sharp depreciation of the real was December’s key highlight. The currency reached a new all-time high of BRL 6.30, ending the year at BRL 6.18. The deterioration in market confidence, exacerbated by the simultaneous announcement of a spending cut package and the expansion of income tax exemption thresholds, coincided with a record capital outflow, prompting the Central Bank to intervene repeatedly in the FX market throughout the month. Although December typically sees higher outflows, the volumes recorded in 2024 far exceeded those of previous years.

Beyond the currency market, other asset classes also delivered weak returns in the local market. One exception was private credit, represented by the IDA-DI index, which was the only segment to outperform the CDI benchmark in 2024, despite experiencing declines in the last two months of the year.

This month’s webinar featured insights from Fernando Verboonen, CIO at Turim, Thiago Campos, Economist, and Pedro Hokama, Head of Liquid Assets.