Turim Insights
A monthly conversation with our team about markets and strategies
The resilience of U.S. economic growth, the impacts of the Trump administration’s new trade policies, and the first signs of a slowdown in Brazil were among the key topics discussed in this month’s Turim Insights Webinar.
In the United States, economic activity and the labor market continue to post stronger-than-expected figures, which has supported the performance of the U.S. stock market—even as interest rates remain at elevated levels. In January, equity market performance became less concentrated in the “Magnificent 7”, creating broader opportunities for excess returns across equity funds.
On the other hand, the new trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration have added another layer of uncertainty. So far, an additional 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum have been implemented, along with measures against Canada and Mexico, which have been temporarily suspended for negotiation. Expectations are that additional actions will be announced throughout the Republican administration, potentially prolonging the timeline for inflation to converge toward target levels in the U.S..
In Brazil, early signs of a labor market slowdown have begun to emerge, with weaker-than-expected results in both the CAGED report (net creation of formal jobs) and the Continuous PNAD survey (unemployment rate). Following a prolonged period of monetary tightening, these data suggest the economy may be nearing a turning point, which could have implications for monetary policy in the coming months.
In local markets, the Brazilian real posted a sharp appreciation, reversing three consecutive months of losses and outperforming most other emerging market currencies. This movement occurred alongside lower risk premiums across several domestic asset classes, also reflected in the Ibovespa’s strong performance, which rose 4.9% in the month.
The webinar featured insights from Fernando Verboonen, CIO at Turim, Henrique Santos, CFA, Partner and Portfolio Manager, and Lucas Panaro, Head of Liquid Funds.