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The opening of the post-Covid Chinese economy gained momentum in February – this is what our February Economic Report shows. The recent increase in data that encompass different metrics of mobility and economic activity is the highest since the beginning of the series, in 2020, suggesting expansion in economic activity.
In the United States, the labor market remains heated, despite the monetary contraction implemented by the Federal Reserve (US central bank). In addition, the US stock market also performed relatively well – but this balance could prove unstable if interest rates rise again.
In Brazil, the Brazilian economy had a slight decline in the 4th quarter of 2022. However, in the year, the result of 2.9% was considerably better than initially predicted by the market.
For 2023, the very contractionary interest rate and the problems in the credit market should exert a downward force on domestic activity, partially offset by stronger agroindustrial activity and fiscal impulse.
The beginning of 2023 has been marked by a recovery of the US stock market, especially in more discounted assets. Our monthly economic report shows that this movement was favored by the closing of the yield curve and prospects of a retreat in inflation.
However, in early February, after surprisingly stronger data, especially in the labor market, we saw some of this movement reversing.
In the same direction, the dollar, which had been showing a weaker performance since the end of last year, showed some recovery at the margin.
In Brazil, the national currency was able to remain relatively well behaved in the face of a rather negative flow of news in recent months.
Favorable external factors such as the reopening of China and, again, the closing of US interest rates help to explain the behavior in the period. However, it is noted that the currency has performed worse than most of its peers in 3 to 4 month horizons.
The global rise in interest rates, with the main monetary authorities seeking to combat the rise in inflation, was one of the main topics that impacted the year 2022 and one of the highlights of this month’s report.
This year, with weaker economic data in the United States, especially with regard to inflation, some relief is expected in the interest rate hike cycle.
In Europe, winter surprised positively, since the cold is less rigorous. In view of this, there was a significant decline in gas prices on the continent, with implications for December inflation, which showed a drop in the headline index despite pressure on the core.
Another highlight is the reopening process in China, which is increasingly consolidated and has the potential to significantly affect the commodity market.
“Since the end of last year, Chinese authorities have been lifting restrictions related to Covid-19 and announcing a series of economic stimuli. It is speculated that the advancement of this process will result in additional support for oil prices, which has the country as one of its largest importers”, says the report.
Despite the increase Covid-19 cases in China, the authorities have chosen to relax measures to combat the virus, signaling a true paradigm shift: now, instead of zeroing out cases, the country’s goal seems to be “to flatten the curve “, as happened in the West. This is what our Economic Report of the month reveals.
At the same time, US inflation has been mild, allowing the FOMC to have some peace of mind to reduce the pace of interest rate hikes at its next meeting. However, some metrics, such as core services excluding rent, still have a hazy path ahead.
In the local scenario, the report shows how the slowdown in activity and the uncertainty regarding the fiscal scenario have affected the confidence of the Brazilian business community.
In this context, the release of GDP for the third quarter points to a more intense deceleration than expected, reinforcing the perception that the economy began to cool off in the second half of the year.
The deceleration of the cycle of interest rate hikes by some of the main Central Banks was one of the highlights of the month of October. In this context, the market predicts a deceleration of inflation in the United States. The great uncertainty, however, refers to the interest rate necessary to contain the advance of underlying inflation.
The document also shows that the recent drop in prices in the real estate market may have relevant implications for US inflation, especially in items linked to rental prices, which have been under pressure in the current cycle.
The results of the monetary tightening have also started to show signs in Brazil. In its last minutes, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) emphasized that the effects could already be identified in economic activity and in credit statistics, highlighting the composition of credit granted to families and a moderate increase in defaults.
September was marked by the announcement of a surprising tax package in the UK. In a complex context, which already included high interest rates and growth in public spending, the addition of tax waiver policies without counterparts generated significant repercussions in the market.
The market reaction to the bids was one of the biggest joint interest-rate and sterling-depreciation moves in its history.
In this global context – of intense devaluation of the currencies of developed and emerging economies, in face of the strong appreciation of the dollar – the performance of the Real has been sustained relatively well, having even had a positive performance in the year.
In addition to foreign exchange, another niche that has been strongly impacted by the generalized opening of interest rates around the world is the stock market. With the addition of negative revisions to corporate earnings estimates in the context of a global slowdown, international stock exchanges have presented a weaker performance, with prices negatively impacted by lower-than-expected quarterly balance sheet projections.
The US interest rate market continues to re-price its terminal rate – the interest rate that will end the high cycle promoted by the Federal Reserve –, as well as the path of cuts that will follow it. This is one of the main topics that has been impacting the global scenario and one of the highlights of this month’s Economic Report.
The continuity of this economic environment concerned with inflation leads to a positive correlation between the returns of fixed and variable income assets – which represents one of the biggest recent challenges to the construction of portfolios.
“There were few times over the last 20 years when asset performance moved in the same direction. In this cycle, however, this correlation reached a very high level compared to the historical pattern”, says the report.
In Brazil, although the accumulated flow in shares has been stable in the last five years, Turin believes that there is room for the country to attract resources in the coming years, if the fiscal solution is considered.
The global economy continues to navigate towards a moment of tightening monetary conditions – and at an increasingly accelerated pace. This topic is analyzed in our Economic Report.
In the United States, headline inflation seems to have reached its peak, with evidence of improvement in components associated with relief in production chains and correction in commodity prices.
This adjustment in commodities took place specially in energy-related items, reflecting the global escalation of interest rates and the possibility of recessions in major economies, such as the North American and European.
In the stock market, the American stock market showed a strong recovery from mid-July, reflecting the closing of the American yield curve. The dollar also remains strong when compared to its peers.
In Brazil, the Central Bank indicated that the end of the monetary tightening cycle was approaching, leading real interest rates to a relevant fall.
During the first half of the year, inflation reached the highest levels of recent decades in several countries. This was the main theme of this month’s EconomicReport.
On the global stage, central banks in developed countries responded with tougher measures, tightening monetary conditions since the beginning of the year.
In June, the interest rate hike was even faster, with the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, opting for a higher hike than initially suggested.
In Brazil, the Central Bank kept the door open for a last interest rate hike and announces a strategy to maintain the Selic rate in contractionary territory for an extended period.
That high-rate outlook has pushed US long-term bonds to their worst returns for the first six months of the year in decades. The simultaneous decline in the fixed and variable income markets, an inversion of the relationship that prevailed in recent years, represented a major challenge for portfolio management.
Global economic activity continues to show growth, despite the tightening of financial conditions promoted by central banks. This is what our May Economic Report shows.
The text also highlights how the rise in interest rates is impacting markets in the United States, such as real estate, which is already showing relevant effects with a drop in sales of new homes.
In Brazil, the persistence of inflation, especially in energy, has increased pressure for more public spending, which, despite high collections in the short term, represents a risk to the trajectory of public debt.
Finally, on the local stock market, there is a clear discrepancy between the stocks that benefit from the rise in commodity prices, which have been sustaining the rise in the index accumulated in the year, and the others.
Our April Economic Report shows the consequences of widespread inflation and highlights how the Federal Reserve’s (Fed, the US central bank) change in stance has already produced a relevant tightening in global financial conditions.
Due to the process of normalization of monetary policy in the world, stock markets have been facing severe corrections. What draws attention in this market correction is that fixed income, which in general acts as a balance in investment portfolios, also presents a negative result, due to this change in the posture of global central banks.
Another consequence of the tightening of monetary conditions is the appreciation of the dollar, due to the increase in the interest rate differential – which justifies the rapid devaluation of the real in April.
Our March Economic Report highlights the heating up of the US job market where the ratio between the number of unemployed and the number of vacancies dropped significantly in the post-pandemic period.
This scenario, combined with the persistence of inflation and a more hawkish stance (with a bias towards raising interest rates) adopted by the Federal Reserve, the American central bank, has led to a significant increase in expectations for the cycle of interest rate hikes. .
In Brazil, the Real benefited from the rising commodities environment. After the acceleration of commodity prices, the flow of international capital began to seek assets, especially currencies, in emerging economies.
The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a significant increase in commodity prices. In our February’s Economic Report, we explained that, in addition to the immediate inflationary impact, an eventual supply cut could limit Europe’s growth for example, which is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas.
In the US, the accelerating global inflation environment and a significant change in the Fed’s speech made the market price a more abrupt start to the hikes cyccle in interest rates.
This inflation scenario and high interest rates combined with the commodities boom, has led the American stock market to reverse its behavior, reflecting a more favorable performance for value assets than for growth assets.
The US, UK, Japan and European labor markets have converged to better levels and are generally close to pre-pandemic levels. In our January Economic Report, we explained that this movement has been one of the main vectors of the hawkish steer – a bias towards an increase in interest rates – from the Central Banks in these regions.
In Brazil, the proposals for tax exemptions to contain the rise in fuel prices is the main highlight. In the long term, they should imply an increase in country risk and a deterioration in inflation expectations, as shown by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (Copom).
In addition, the Committee’s most recent minutes indicated that the Selic rate hike cycle should be slightly more intense and lasting than expected, reaching a rate above 12% p.a. in May — and going on so for some time.
The Ômicron variant has led to record numbers of Covid-19 cases, but hospitalizations and deaths have not kept up with this pace. In the December Report, we explained that we expect a negative response in activity indicators – especially services –, but that this movement should quickly reverse.
In the US, the recovery of the #labor market has been rapid. With employment and activity at more expressive levels, the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank) has adopted an increasingly rigid discourse in relation to the fight against #inflation. The monetary authority intends to tighten financial conditions, which are highly stimulating.
In Brazil, the current cycle of high #interest rates was much faster and more intense than the market projected at the beginning of 2021. The high level, added to the presidential elections, should create a complex environment for risk assets, at the same time in which they can create investment opportunities, with attractive valuations in many cases.